tech · security
uk cyber agency expects ai-built ransomware to hit vital services by 2028
the national cyber security centre’s yearly review says ai is mostly making old attacks faster, and that the firms who cannot use it to defend themselves are falling behind.
- 2028, ai ransomware on uk grid, water
- £14.7BN, cyber attacks cost uk firms
- £196M, direct cost to jaguar land rover
the ncscthe national cyber security centre, the part of gchq that defends the uk against cyber attacks and advises everyone else how to. published its tenth annual review on tuesday, and the biggest change since last year is ai. its central judgement is that ai is almost certainly a force multiplier: it lets skilled attackers do what they already do, only faster and at greater scale, rather than inventing new kinds of attack. finding software bugs and writing exploits for them is the sharp end of that, which leaves defenders racing to patch sooner.
the line that made headlines is in its threat chapter: the agency thinks it highly likely that, between now and 2028, criminals will hit uk critical national infrastructure with ransomware that uses ai-written malware, meaning things like energy, water and hospitals. it names china as the state with the most intent and ability to do that. the review also sketches a deliberately bleak 2028, where widely available frontier ai means far more attacks, and an autonomous attacker could even copy itself and keep going with no human steering it. the ncsc stresses that scenario is a warning, not a forecast.
pick one
according to the ncsc, what is ai’s biggest effect on cyber attacks so far?
next: the register reports new government money for ai cyber defence alongside the review, including £60m for a programme called cyber shield. the ncsc’s own advice is to build resilience now, while getting ready for what comes next.